Sales FC MAPE
—
sales gut-feel error
Statistical MAPE
—
model-based error
SS Reduction
—
safety stock savings
Annual $ Savings
—
from reduced safety stock
Forecast vs Actual
Actual demand (black) compared to sales forecast (red) and statistical forecast (blue) with prediction interval
Actual
Sales FC
Statistical FC
95% PI
Error Distribution
Forecast error histograms — narrower and centered is better
Sales Errors
Statistical Errors
Inventory Impact
Inventory levels under each forecast approach with safety stock lines
Sales FC Inventory
Stat FC Inventory
Cost Comparison
Annual cost breakdown — safety stock holding cost, estimated stockout risk cost, and total
Sales FC
Statistical FC
Analysis & Recommendations
Based on: Hyndman & Athanasopoulos, Forecasting: Principles and Practice (3rd ed.); Silver, Pyke & Thomas, Inventory and Production Management in Supply Chains.