Expert Adjustment Simulator

When should you trust the model — and when should you override it?

History Statistical forecast (ETS) Your adjusted forecast
Expert override +0%
−50%0%+50%
Model MASE
—
statistical forecast only
Your Adjusted MASE
—
with override applied in event window
Verdict
—
move the slider
Model: ETS(A,A,A), period = 12. MASE denominator: seasonal naive in-sample MAE (m = 12). Anchoring effect calibrated from 50 simulated practitioner adjustments.
Sources: Fildes et al. (2009) IJF 25(1), 3–23 — DOI 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2008.11.010 · Syntetos et al. (2009) IJPE 118(1), 72–81 — DOI 10.1016/j.ijpe.2008.08.011 · Hyndman & Athanasopoulos (2021) FPP3 Ch. 6