The Schwerpunkt Diagnostic

Allocation Sandbox

Choose how many initiatives compete for your $100M budget, then drag the sliders to allocate. Each initiative carries a different latent potential (Mₘ): the largest pays out only when funded above the activation threshold of $8M. Below that, a dollar in is a dollar wasted.

Concentration Diagnostic

Three measures of how concentrated your allocation is. Land in the dusty-red Schwerpunkt band on each metric and the centre of gravity holds. The dot marks the curve’s peak (α ≈ 2, HHI ≈ 0.45).

Verdict

Concentration vs. Outcome

As concentration α rises from 0 (uniform) to 6 (winner-take-all), expected outcome rises, peaks at α ≈ 2 (Schwerpunkt), then falls as the scale-bonus is exhausted on a single bet. The dark dot is your current allocation.

Archetype Comparison

Three patterns from the article, plus the 60 / 25 / 15 Schwerpunkt and your current allocation. Outcomes are from Bravo’s R reference engine.

Stop-Doing Candidates

From your current allocation, the three lowest-share initiatives. These are the candidates Schwerpunkt asks you to cut so the centre of gravity can hold.

Reserve Timing

A separate doctrine: holding $20M in reserve, deploy it early, late, or at the moment of decision (months 6–7). Reserves multiply when the enemy is committed; they wither when held to the end of the campaign.