Mercenaries Will Ruin You: the outsourced-capability tradeoff explorer

Move the parameters on the left and watch the three structural costs of consultant-led core capability. Defaults reproduce the locked scenario in the blog post (DACH benchmarks, 2024 to 2026).

Pure consultant TCO
€1,400,000
60-month cumulative
Hybrid TCO
€1,765,000
60-month cumulative
Insourced TCO
€980,000
60-month cumulative
Savings vs consultant
€420,000
30.0% at 60 months

Panel 1. Total cost of ownership over 60 months

Cumulative € spend for one core-capability FTE-equivalent across three staffing modes.

Pure consultant Hybrid (consultant + junior) Insourced (senior + junior) Crossover
Crossover from month 5. The insourced option costs more in month one because of the €30,000 recruit and onboard spend. After that, two salaried staff cost less per month than a billable consultant, and the cumulative line bends below the consultant line by month five and stays there.

Panel 2. Capability stock and the mercenary cliff

Pedagogical capability index, 0 to 80 asymptote. The consultant's contribution leaves with the consultant.

Pure-insourced (you own the build) Total under consultant (incl. external) Internal stock under consultant
The cliff at month 18. During the engagement the consultant adds 65 external index points. When they exit, those points walk out with them. The internal team that was not allowed to own decisions now starts the rebuild from a depleted base, and forty-two months later it is still 8.3 points short of where pure-insourced would be.

Panel 3. Whose effort goes UP when the project catches fire? CARTOON MODEL

Stylised effort intensity vs project stress level. Stress is project pressure, not hours worked. Not estimated from data.

Fixed-fee consultant Time-and-materials consultant Employee with reputation / equity stake
Employee effort vs fixed-fee at crisis: 3.2x. When stress hits 10, the fixed-fee consultant rationally de-risks (their downside is unbounded, their upside is fixed), while the employee with reputation and equity at stake leans in. The effort ratio at the moment of maximum need is the Machiavelli claim quantified.