Of the Fox and the Lion: bond durability under stress

Move the stress slider and watch which supplier bonds survive. Compare four scenarios in the effectiveness cards. Toggle the four Machiavellian buffers to see how predictable enforcement, restraint, respect for property, and non-interference push the hatred boundary rightward. All numbers locked to Bravo-Zero-R's FINAL DATASET v1.1.1, 2026-05-22.

Loved-only retention
20%
at s = 0.60
Feared-respected retention
90%
at s = 0.60
Hated retention
63%
at s = 0.60, s* = 0.65
Hatred margin (s* − s)
+0.05
Below the tipping point

Panel 1. Bond durability vs. stress

Each curve is the share of cooperative behaviour that survives at stress level s. Loved-only is the popularity bond. Feared-respected is Machiavelli's prescription. Hated is the trap on the other side of cruelty.

Loved-only Feared-respected Hated Current stress (s) Conspiracy threshold (s*)
Loved cracks first; hated cracks worst.

Panel 2. Fox / Lion × Feared / Loved effectiveness

Four scenarios, four 2x2 grids. The active scenario is outlined; its winning cell is filled. Hover any cell for the one-line justification (verbatim from the FINAL DATASET).

Crisis: Feared Lion wins, 5/5.

Panel 3. The hatred boundary diagnostic

Compliance vs. fear intensity. The curve rises when fear adds credibility, then crashes when fear turns to hatred. Toggle the four buffers in the side panel to push the hatred threshold f_hi rightward. Stylised model from §10.4-§10.6 of the FINAL DATASET, not industry data.

Compliance C(f) Hatred threshold (f_hi) Current fear (f) Peak compliance
Hatred threshold (f_hi)
0.60
Baseline 0.40 + 2 buffers
Compliance at current f
81.7%
at f = 0.50
Peak compliance
at f = —
Active buffers
2 of 4
+0.20 total shift
Compliance at f = 0.50, f_hi = 0.65: 81.7%.