The Forecasting Horse Race

148 real Australian retail turnover series. Five classical models, trained through December 2016, versus two of Amazon's Chronos-Bolt AI foundation models running zero-shot. Every model forecast 24 months (2017–2018) and was scored through one identical MASE code path.

Leaderboard — lower mean MASE is better; winner highlighted

Accuracy by forecast horizon — mean MASE across all 148 series