The Pattern Recognition Lab

Three exercises in seeing what a table hides. Split a demand series into its parts, meet four datasets that share one statistics table, then name the relationship in your own data before you pick a chart.

SKU-4471, 60 monthly observations, 2021-01 to 2025-12. Synthetic series, STL components from feasts::STL().

Components

STL splits the series into trend, seasonal and remainder. Each panel below is one of those parts, drawn on its own scale.


Isolate one part

The hidden break

Draws the planted trend and the counterfactual: what 2025 would have looked like had growth of 12 units a month continued.


What the decomposition measures

SKU-4471, monthly demand and its STL components

Reading the panels

Planted vs estimated seasonal offsets (units)

STL estimates. It does not reveal ground truth. The largest gap is 22.6 units, and one monthly estimate carries a standard error of 40 / √5 = 17.9 units, so every gap sits inside about 1.3 standard errors.