Schlagwort: Tetlock
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Virtù and Fortuna: The Limits of Strategic Control
Machiavelli’s most enduring contribution is the dichotomy between virtù (the part of outcome the strategist controls) and fortuna (the part they do not). Half of action is shaped, half is not. The corporate misreading of which is which corrupts strategic learning at most companies.
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The Folly of Forecasting
From the Pythia at Delphi to Google’s GraphCast — humans have always demanded the future. Why some forecasts have gotten dramatically better, why others haven’t, and why AI will not deliver the silver bullet.
