Real-world methods for supply chain and operations management professionals who want to go beyond Excel — with reproducible code, realistic datasets, and techniques you can apply today.

Line chart: monthly demand actuals, forecast, and widening 95 percent prediction interval after today

Newest Entries


  • Schwerpunkt: The Lost Art of Strategic Concentration

    Most strategy decks are budget arithmetic dressed up as a plan. Clausewitz had a single word for what is actually happening — and a discipline for fixing it. The lost art of Schwerpunkt.


  • Fog of War, Fog of Market: Decision-Making Under Uncertainty

    Clausewitz’s answer to uncertainty was not better data — it was better judgment. Two centuries later, most boards still demand certainty before authorising action, and most strategy windows close before the data is ready. This piece is about the qualities Clausewitz called coup d’oeil and Fingerspitzengefuehl, and what they mean when the dashboard is incomplete…


  • Friction Is the Strategy: What Clausewitz Knew About Execution

    Clausewitz’s 1832 concept of Reibung — friction — is not a complaint about execution. It is the structural diagnosis that strategy decks still refuse to internalise two centuries later. Any strategy that does not budget for friction is not a strategy; it is a wish.


  • Win Without Fighting: The Supreme Art in Business Strategy

    Sun Tzu’s most cited principle is also his most misread. Winning without fighting is not pacifism — it is raising the cost of opposition so high that conflict becomes irrational for the adversary.


  • Shaping the Battlefield: Sun Tzu on Positioning Before Competition

    Sun Tzu’s most underappreciated concept is shih (势) — the potential energy of a chosen position. The decisive act in strategy isn’t the fight, it’s the positioning that makes the fight unwinnable for the other side.


  • Know Before You Move: Sun Tzu’s Intelligence Doctrine

    Sun Tzu’s Chapter XIII is a 2,500-year-old empirical claim: foreknowledge cannot be deduced from inside the room. Most companies still get this wrong — and the failure rates are measurable.


  • 30 Books Every Forecaster, Demand Planner, and S&OP Lead Should Read — The Inphronesys Bookshelf

    An interactive 30-book bookshelf for forecasters, demand planners, S&OP leads, supply chain strategists, and the data scientists who keep them honest. Filter by category and level, build a reading list for your role.


  • The Folly of Forecasting

    From the Pythia at Delphi to Google’s GraphCast — humans have always demanded the future. Why some forecasts have gotten dramatically better, why others haven’t, and why AI will not deliver the silver bullet.