Tag: demand planning
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Six Times They Tried to Prove Sophistication Wins
Forty years of open forecasting competitions, and the winner’s margin over a dumb average stayed thin. Then M6 asked whether accuracy makes money. The correlation was 0.04.
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I Raced Amazon’s Forecasting AI Against a 66-Year-Old Formula. The Formula Won.
I put Amazon’s zero-shot forecasting AI against five classical models on 148 real retail series. A formula from 1960 beat a 205-million-parameter model by 14 to 16%.
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Your Exception Report Is Lying to You: How to Make ‘1% False Alarms’ Actually Mean 1%
A static ±3σ band promised 0.27% false alarms and delivered 3.80%. Here is how to turn your exception threshold from a statistics setting into an honest attention budget.
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S&OP: Everyone Signed Off on the Number. It Was Still Wrong by 8.2%.
A consensus forecast measures agreement, not truth. Here is what a textbook S&OP cycle looks like, why the signed-off number still ran 8.2% high, and the four moves that fix it without a full process overhaul.
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Does Your Forecast Beat a Sticky Note? The Placebo Test for Demand Planning
Your forecast has exactly one job: beat a sticky note that says ‘same as last year.’ Most don’t. Here’s the placebo test that proves it.
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I Gave an AI Agent the Reorder Button: It Rebuilt the Bullwhip in 250 Days
An AI agent with the reorder button hit ~100% fill rate and looked like a star. Then I measured what it dumped on its suppliers.
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30 Books Every Forecaster, Demand Planner, and S&OP Lead Should Read — The Inphronesys Bookshelf
An interactive 30-book bookshelf for forecasters, demand planners, S&OP leads, supply chain strategists, and the data scientists who keep them honest. Filter by category and level, build a reading list for your role.
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The 20 Most Influential People in Forecasting (And What to Learn From Each)
A TIME 100-style guide to the academics, ML engineers, and supply chain voices who shaped modern forecasting — and the one resource to start with for each.